https://serfdomalley.com/videos/watch/cacf5bfe-93ba-4394-9117-16e23c463c2b The June 17, 2026, Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) expired today – August 17, 2026. The US has not achieved any of its initial objectives. It is now mainly concerned with opening the Strait of Hormuz without having to accept Iran’s far-reaching demands for ending its blockade of the Strait. The Trump administration is trying to achieve that goal with a naval blockade, a strategy it employed earlier in the war, and which failed. I will argue that the strategic situation facing the US in the Gulf is much worse now and there is virtually no chance that this second blockade will work. Moreover, that deteriorating strategic situation makes escalation even less attractive. ———————————————————— CHAPTERS 0:00 Introduction 0:29 The MOU expires today 1:23 Why the US is now relying on a naval blockade 2:49 America's four original war aims — and why all four failed 3:40 What America wants now: open the strait, get a nuclear deal 4:58 Iran's goals and its list of demands 7:22 How we got here: the phases of the war 7:38 Phase one — the 40-day air campaign 8:06 Phase two — the first blockade and the surrender document 9:13 Phase three — the tit-for-tat campaign 10:49 Phase four — the second blockade, where we are today 11:24 Bessent's promise of "unprecedented economic hurt" 12:53 Can the second blockade actually work? 14:39 Problem one: the state of the US Navy 17:05 Problem two: stripping East Asia to cover the Gulf 19:17 Problem three: oil, the Red Sea, and drained reserves 21:50 Problem four: Iranian hardliners take control 23:50 Is there an escalation option? Three reasons why not 25:34 The July 6th attack — and what the US isn't doing now 28:15 Iran now holds the escalation card 29:59 Conclusion: the US has no strategy left ———————————————————— MUSIC "The Ice Giants" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com) Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Music modified (edited/remixed) from the original. Tue, 25 Aug 2026 18:19:05 GMT https://validator.w3.org/feed/docs/rss2.html PeerTube - https://serfdomalley.com https://serfdomalley.com/client/assets/images/icons/icon-512x512.png https://serfdomalley.com/videos/watch/cacf5bfe-93ba-4394-9117-16e23c463c2b All rights reserved, unless otherwise specified in the terms specified at https://serfdomalley.com/about and potential licenses granted by each content's rightholder.